1.5C threshold

A new study in Nature Climate and Atmospheric Science finds that the rate of global warming has roughly doubled, suggesting the 1.5°C threshold above pre-industrial levels could be crossed as early as 2028. The finding points to an accelerating pace of warming beyond what many climate models anticipated, prompting debate among researchers and commentators about how quickly remaining carbon budgets are being exhausted and what mitigation steps might still matter.

The EU's Copernicus Climate Change Service reports September 2025 was the second warmest September on record, with global average temperatures remaining more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The findings add to growing evidence that the Paris Agreement's key threshold is being breached, as scientists track whether persistent heat marks a shift in long-term climate trends.

A new study published in npj Climate and Atmospheric Science finds that the rate of global warming has roughly doubled in recent years, and concludes that at this pace the world could exceed the 1.5C warming threshold by 2028. The finding is being shared among climate scientists and commentators, adding urgency to debates over emissions cuts and the shrinking window to meet Paris Agreement targets.

Global temperatures remained more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels during what was the second warmest September on record, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. The reading shows the planet continues to breach the threshold that the Paris Agreement aims to avoid, even as the record-breaking streak of recent months eases slightly. Observers point to the finding as fresh evidence that warming is not slowing.

September was the second-warmest September on record globally, with an average temperature of 16.27 degrees Celsius, according to the EU's climate change service. It was also the second consecutive month this year in which global temperatures exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, a threshold scientists warn the world should not surpass long-term.

Commentary is highlighting the gap between climate science and US policy: global warming is projected to surpass the Paris Agreement's 1.5C limit, while the United States steps back from international climate commitments. Writers argue this combination of missed targets and reduced American leadership leaves the world with fewer tools to curb emissions at a decisive moment.