economic forecasting

Bill Gates, writing in the Observer, argues that artificial intelligence will lead to widespread job losses and that governments will need to build a safety net to cope. He says the wealthy, who stand to gain most financially from AI, should pay more tax to fund that protection. Commentators are debating both the job-loss forecast and the merits of his call for higher taxes on the rich.

The IMF has slightly raised its economic growth outlook for 2026 while keeping its 2027 forecast unchanged at 3.4 percent. In related economy news, Dutch consumers are spending increasingly more at supermarkets just across the border, a trend drawing attention as households look for cheaper groceries amid cost-of-living pressures.

Mexico's September inflation accelerated to 3.45%, marking three consecutive months of increases, though the figure came in slightly below forecasts. Some product prices did fall, with analysts highlighting the items that dropped the most. The uptick is drawing attention ahead of a crucial economic week in the region, with US midterms looming and Donald Trump facing economic scrutiny.

Researchers argue that predictions of catastrophic population decline or demographic collapse are overstated, according to a new comment published in Science. The piece pushes back against alarmist framing of falling fertility rates and ageing populations, contending that current forecasts exaggerate the scale and urgency of the problem. Debate is under way about how worried the world should really be about shrinking populations.

Americans continue to express negative views of the economy, yet consumer spending remains strong despite that pessimism. With midterm elections approaching, commentators caution against reading current polling as a reliable forecast, since voters' economic sentiment and their actual financial behaviour appear to point in different directions heading into the vote.

Forecasts indicate Bangladesh's per capita GDP is set to surpass India's, a milestone analysts say reflects years of faster growth driven by garment exports, remittances and gains in living standards. Commentators are debating what the shift means for comparisons between the two South Asian neighbours and for India's own economic trajectory.

Geopolitical Futures has published its weekly graphic presenting an outlook for the world economy in 2026. The visualization offers a forward-looking snapshot of global economic conditions as analysts and readers assess growth prospects, trade dynamics, and risks heading into the new year. Commentary around such forecasts tends to focus on how accurately current projections capture shifting geopolitical and financial pressures.

The latest weekly Focus bulletin, a survey of financial institutions published by Brazil's Central Bank, shows analysts keeping their 2026 inflation forecast above the official target while raising the 2027 projection. At the same time, economists trimmed their estimate for the Selic benchmark interest rate. The mixed signals are fueling debate over the outlook for Brazilian monetary policy and the credibility of the inflation targets.

A figure dubbed 'America's Nostradamus' is drawing attention for a sweeping set of predictions: an Iranian nuclear threat, a prophecy involving Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a 27-year war, and the collapse of the United States by 2028. The Economic Times carried the claims. There is no indication of who the predictor is or what evidence supports the forecasts.

A Haaretz analysis examines what it calls Benjamin Netanyahu's doomsday prophecy, arguing the Israeli prime minister is forecasting economic collapse and international isolation. The piece frames these warnings against the backdrop of Israel's ongoing war, strained relations with allies, and mounting pressure on the country's economy. Readers are debating whether the warnings reflect genuine danger or political strategy aimed at shoring up domestic support.

New projections indicate Bangladesh is expected to overtake India in per capita GDP this year, a milestone that would have seemed unlikely when Bangladesh was far poorer a few decades ago. Commentators are debating what the forecast really means, noting that aggregate economic size, exchange rates and income distribution complicate the comparison, but many see it as a symbolic shift in South Asia's economic balance.

Bloomberg's Odd Lots programme has released a new episode exploring why political factors remain an overlooked blind spot in economic analysis. The discussion examines how economists' models and forecasts often fail to account for political dynamics, and what that gap means for understanding real-world economic outcomes.

The International Monetary Fund has published its World Economic Outlook for October 2026, the flagship report assessing global growth, inflation and financial risks. The October edition typically draws close attention from policymakers, markets and media as governments prepare budgets and central banks weigh policy moves. Economists are expected to scrutinise the forecasts for signs of slowing or recovering growth across major economies.

Metals Focus says gold's path to $6,000 an ounce and silver's return above $90 an ounce both hinge on renewed investor confidence in precious metals. The consultancy's outlook suggests that if investors rotate back into bullion, both metals could see substantial gains from current levels. Analysts and traders are weighing the forecast against economic uncertainty and demand for safe-haven assets.

Israel's central bank has left its benchmark interest rate unchanged while raising its economic growth forecasts, a decision announced weeks before the country heads to the polls. The move signals confidence in the economy's resilience despite political uncertainty, and analysts are weighing whether the election timing influenced the bank's decision to hold steady rather than adjust borrowing costs.

Housing analysts are arguing that national housing forecasts fail to capture conditions at the individual lot level, where development decisions are actually made. The piece suggests broad market predictions gloss over local variation in land supply, zoning and builder economics, giving industry watchers a misleading picture of where new construction is truly viable.

Goldman Sachs says the Bank of Korea's next interest rate hike is now more likely to come in the first quarter of 2027, rather than November as previously expected. The revised call suggests the US bank sees Korean inflation and economic conditions keeping policymakers on hold far longer than markets may have anticipated, drawing attention from investors tracking Asian monetary policy.

Analysts estimate the launch of Grand Theft Auto 6 could drain roughly $1 billion from the US economy, as workers and consumers are expected to take time off and stay home to play. Take-Two Interactive, the game's publisher, is forecast to earn a comparable amount from sales, making the release as much an economic event as an entertainment one.

Indiana University Southeast is hosting a Futurecast Economic Outlook Breakfast, an event focused on forecasting economic conditions for the coming year. The gathering brings together local business leaders, economists and community members to hear analysis on employment, growth and regional trends. Universities across the country hold similar outlook events each year as organizations plan budgets and strategy.

A new discussion examines whether prediction markets could serve as a hedge against business risk, allowing companies to offset exposure to uncertain outcomes such as elections, regulatory changes or economic shifts by taking positions on forecasted events. Interest is growing in the use of these markets beyond speculation, as firms look for new tools to manage uncertainty.

An Australian-based commentator argues that mainstream economic forecasting is built on flawed assumptions because it treats natural resources as infinite, overlooking externalities such as environmental damage. The critique says economists debate parameters and economic rationalism without accounting for the real limits of the planet's resources, a gap that is drawing attention amid ongoing debate over climate economics.

Building Indiana Business is highlighting an upcoming 2026 Business & Economic Outlook event or report that will examine key trends expected to shape the economy next year. The item gives few details on speakers or topics, but it signals growing attention among Indiana business readers to forecasts on growth, hiring and market conditions heading into 2026.

Stock markets are climbing to strong gains, yet analysts are questioning what is driving the rally and whether it can last. Elliott Wave International, a market forecasting firm, is among the voices pointing to a contradiction between rising prices and underlying conditions, prompting debate among investors about hidden risks behind the optimism.

Holiday shoppers are expected to spend 4% more on average this season than last year, according to retail industry forecasts. The projected increase points to continued consumer willingness to spend despite economic pressures, and retailers are likely preparing inventory, staffing and promotions around the higher spend expectations heading into the holiday shopping period.