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El Niño returns: From climate signal to sovereign risk

The El Niño climate pattern has returned, and analysts are framing it as more than a weather event. An investment research note argues the phenomenon now poses sovereign risk, with potential impacts on food prices, inflation, commodity markets and government finances in vulnerable economies, particularly across Latin America, Asia and Africa. Commentators are weighing how the pattern could strain national budgets and test policymakers already grappling with elevated inflation.

Why now: El Niño's return raises fears of food inflation, fiscal strain and market disruption in exposed economies.

El NiñoT. Rowe Price

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